Research by Julia Sass Rubin of the Bloustein School of Planning and Public Policy at Rutgers University shows that placement on the county line gives candidates an average of 38% more votes than their competitors, and no state legislative incumbent has lost a primary since 2009 when they’ve been put on the county line.
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Rubin—who is neutral in the race—told The Daily Beast it’s possible that candidates can overcome the county line, citing a 2020 example when a county-backed political science professor lost in the primary to Amy Kennedy, the wife of former Rep. Patrick Kennedy (D-NJ).
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“You can see the impact that the county line has on both parties in recent legislative races. Over the last few years, three incumbent female legislators lost their primaries after losing the county line in all or some of the counties in their districts.”
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No incumbent on the county line has lost a primary election since 2009, according to the researcher, Julia Sass Rubin, a professor at the Edward J. Bloustein School of Planning and Public Policy at Rutgers University.
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“You can see the impact that the county line has on both parties in recent legislative races. Over the last few years, three incumbent female legislators lost their primaries after losing the county line in all or some of the counties in their districts.”
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Julia Sass Rubin found the line county line blessing, on average, bestowed a 38 percentage point advantage to candidates. “In every one of those 45 races, the county line was completely deterministic,’’ she said.
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“It’s a rigged game,” said Julia Sass Rubin, an associate dean of the Edward J. Bloustein School of Planning and Public Policy at Rutgers University who has researched the influence of the county line in federal and legislative races.