Stuart Shapiro

Welcome to EJB Talks. I’m Stuart Shapiro, the Dean of the Bloustein School, and the usual purpose of this podcast is to highlight the work that my colleagues and our alumni in the fields of policy, planning, and health are doing to make the world a better place.

Today, it’s the day after the election in the United States, so we are doing a special edition podcast. And I’m very lucky to have with me today Professor Elizabeth Matto, who is the director of the Eagleton Institute of Politics here at Rutgers. And we are just going to to talk about the election for half an hour. Thank you for coming on the podcast Elizabeth!

Elizabeth Matto

Oh, thank you so much for having me, Stuart. I think these are really valuable conversations to have in the hours after. But certainly I think there’s going to be a lot of discussions to be had the rest of this week and honestly, the next few years about what happened yesterday.

Stuart Shapiro
Yep, absolutely. So let’s start out with the big question here. And to be a nerdy social scientist here, it’s clear the answer to the question of why Donald Trump won re-election to the presidency is over-determined.

There are probably too many reasons to sort of pick one or such, but… And as you said, you know, we will know more as we look at data and such, but what is your reaction to what happened last night and the causes behind it?

Elizabeth Matto

So thanks for starting with that. Yeah, nice easy one to start for for us today, Stuart! (laughing) Thank you.

I mean, I think what was made so clear to me, and as I’m looking at some of the exit polls, as I’m looking at the data that has come in thus far, is not that atypical of past elections in that, the economy clearly was the issue that was driving so many voters and people feeling dissatisfied with the economy and the direction of the country.

And there’s plenty of research, there’s plenty of years of practice that demonstrate in situations like that the incumbent is punished, or it’s attributed to the incumbent.

Now, that’s what was so challenging this year for Vice President Kamala Harris. And although she was not the incumbent, she was part of the Biden Administration for four years.

And as you could see, there was a real attempt to make a distinction between the Biden candidacy, the Biden presidency, I’m sorry, and her candidacy.

That’s a really, really difficult distinction to make (laughing). A really, really difficult distinction to make.

You know, there were some gaffes along the way that didn’t help. You know, so for example, when she was asked, you know —I  think probably there’s been too much attributed to this —but, really needed to have a good answer for if she would do anything differently from President Biden, would she? You know, I think there was at least one incident where it was kind of a poor answer to that question.

So I would say, probably the most overwhelming reason why I believe that the Trump candidacy was successful is that people, even though economic indicators are looking better, people are not feeling it in their pocketbook. That inflation has hit people hard. That post-COVID years have hit people hard.

And again, it’s not terribly surprising that they blame the incumbent, which is Joe Biden. Joe Biden, has, you know, poor approval ratings. I think when I saw those first exit polls come out yesterday at about five or six, you know, that made it clear to me that people were voting based on their feelings about the economy. And the feeling that the country was on the wrong track.

That’s never good for an incumbent. And I think Kamala Harris, that reflected upon her candidacy. Or that really made it really difficult for her to be successful.

Stuart Shapiro

Yeah, I couldn’t agree more.

And if you look to sort of even widen the lens further, every country that has had elections since inflation hit in mid-2021, with the notable exception of Mexico, the incumbent party has been voted out of office.

And so I think that is the starting point for yesterday’s election. Vice President Harris had a huge mountain to climb, given that reality.

And I, you know, you’re reading everything this morning about, she should have done this, she should have done that. You know, I don’t think any of that would have helped. I think the thing that helped her most and the thing that made the election closest is that, former President Trump was not a good candidate.

And, you know, that’s not what people are going to say today because he won. But I think another Republican would have won more soundly. And what kept the race close throughout was the liabilities that people associate with the former president there

Elizabeth Matto

I think you’re right all the way up to the very, very end. But again, you know, I think none of that really trumped  — no pun intended  —the concern about the economy and where we were headed and were we headed in the right direction or the wrong direction.

And again, there’s plenty of practice, plenty of years of experience that demonstrates that that really tends to be determinative.

Stuart Shapiro

Yep. So going in, there were a lot of concerns about the election. Would it come off peacefully?

Elizabeth Matto

Yes.

Stuart Shapiro

Would we have protests? Would we have violence? And we didn’t completely get through unscathed, but we largely got through. Did this surprise you? Do you have sort of a little bit more faith that we can pull these off in the future?

Elizabeth Matto

Yeah. Well, I mean, I think it really is worth noting and certainly in preparation in working with students, but, you know, we do a lot of work here at the Eagleton Institute of Politics through our ?Are You Voting?” program. Really trying to share, disseminate voter information to students, you know, helping them really understand how to get registered to vote, how to find their polling location.

And then we have volunteers out at all of the polling locations. We had them all out there all day yesterday. So certainly it was on my mind from a theoretical standpoint, you know. Will the election be peaceful? But also at a practical level, will our volunteers… I wanted to make sure all of our students were in good shape.

So I think it is worth taking a moment to acknowledge that the institutions of democracy, the processes of democracy, the hallmarks or the bedrock of it being a fair and free election, seem to have gone… seem to have been successful yesterday.

Again, we are hours after the polls closed. I would say let’s not overlook the fact that there were several bomb threats, bomb call threats around the country. I think at least some of them have been attributed to outside enemy states calling in bomb threats. So, you know, that disrupts the process, obviously. May keep people from coming back. You know, if there’s a moment where you think, if you’re polling location if there’s been a threat called in, you’re going to stop voting, they stop everything. Then you might decide to go home and not come back.

And so I think we should be really…that’s something I’ll be looking for. Where did these bomb threats take place? Were they in particular areas that were favorable to one party or another? So I think we shouldn’t overlook that fact. And quite frankly, I think also one of the reasons why things went so peacefully yesterday is, the candidate who was threatening violence if things did not go well, won.

Stuart Shapiro

Right.

Elizabeth Matto

So I think we should be really, really mindful of that. I’m sure this is something you’re talking about with your students, Stuart. I’m talking with my students a lot about just the toxicity of rhetoric and campaign rhetoric. And I’d love to talk to you more about just, what does it say about the campaign and the election?

But I mean, I think that’s one indicator of how, although yes, yesterday went well, there’s been so much research and survey research, in particular, in recent years. Data, about how election workers, poll workers are facing threats of violence. That is, you know, that’s something you never saw in the United States.

Stuart Shapiro

Right.

Elizabeth Matto

So I am grateful. I am gratified that it seems to be that, this was a fair and free election. That it seems to be peaceful. It looks, it’s my understanding as we’re talking now that the vice president conceded. Made a phone call to president, former president-elect Trump and offered a concession. I know she’s speaking later today. So I’ll be really interested in watching all of that because those are all obviously indicators of, is this a free and peaceful transfer of power.

It’s also worth taking a moment, too, to applaud the people who are on the front lines of democracy…

Stuart Shapiro

Yes.

Elizabeth Matto

The poll workers, the election administrators, not just for everything they did yesterday, but everything that was done between elections. There was a lot of attention paid to, how to do elections well, how to make sure they were safe, secure, transparent. There was a real effort to make elections transparent to hopefully mitigate any accusations of fraud.

So it is worth taking a moment to thank and acknowledge how much work goes into holding a free and fair and safe election.

How about you? What do you think?

Stuart Shapiro

Yeah, no, I agree. I do think that from, at least the reports coming in last night, that the bomb threats were concentrated in urban, liberal areas of swing states. We need to obviously document that and look at what happened in those districts. I am, given the margins, I’m confident that that was not dispositive and in affecting the results.

But I do think that we did see a deliberate attempt, and it should concern us moving forward as much as anything.

Elizabeth Matto

Yeah. Yeah. That’s the thing. And I don’t know if… something I’ve been having conversations with my students about. And maybe if it’s something of interest to you and your students. It’s worth going back to look at previous concession speeches. And it’s a reminder of how different… Now, we don’t want to be Pollyannas here too. Certainly there’s always been plenty of ugliness in campaigns and elections. But the fact that sort of, violent rhetoric, is more prevalent and hopefully it’s not normalized. But I think of our students, you know, especially our first-year students who maybe this is their first election. You know, the elections that they have been adults for, or are participating in have not been what we typically have had as elections in the United States.

So, right, I hope some of our debrief is, yes, I’m glad that it seemed to be peaceful. But, there’s so much work we need to do in making, trying to mitigate, or eliminate or minimize, the toxicity and threats of violence associated with American politics right now.

Stuart Shapiro

Yeah, no, I think that’s right. It is. I don’t think we’ve seen this. You know, the 1960s…

Elizabeth Matto

Sure.

Stuart Shapiro

…obviously had its share of fight of actual violence, probably more than we have had in the past decade.

But coming out of the mouths of the candidate, I don’t think we’ve seen  — and even George Wallace in 1968  — I don’t think we’ve seen anything quite like this. And I think it is very much abnormal and a cause for concern moving forward. And something we need to let people know is not acceptable.

Elizabeth Matto

Yeah.

Stuart Shapiro

I will point out, to your point. Anyone who is 29 or younger has never voted in an election where Donald Trump is on the ballot. Sorry, not on the ballot.

Elizabeth Matto

Yeah. Not on the ballot. Right.

Stuart Shapiro

And by 2028, that will be anyone who is 33 or younger. So we have a whole generation of voters who came of age when this rhetoric was normalized. And I think we will be reaping the the harm of that for a long time moving forward

Elizabeth Matto

Well, and it brings up the question, too. And this kind of gets us to thinking about what the election, you know, the election itself and what this says about campaigns. What has been the impact of that that reality, that that Donald Trump has been a persistent candidate for president? What does that say about the nature of the Republican Party, now? How has it reshaped what the Republican Party looks like?

I think the other big question coming out of yesterday’s race, and again, we’re still looking at all the data, is, what does it say about the composition of the Democratic Party? What does it say about coalitions, you know, the nature of coalitions in the Democratic Party. You know, I think although, you know, a number, if you were sort of to look at the electorate and who voted. You know, we know, for example, that more African-American men and women voted for Kamala Harris.

In general, Latinos voted for, favored the Harris campaign than the Trump campaign. But you know compared to 2016, compared to 2020, there was a real reshaping of the Democratic electorate. I think one story that’s really gaining a lot of prominence that I really want to do a good deep dive in is especially Latino men. That there seem to be more support for the Trump candidacy this time around.

Nationally, New Jersey, too. I think that’s one thing to be thinking about with New Jersey and, you know, that Vice President Harris’s margin of victory was pretty slim, was close this year. And I think to some extent that has to do, not entirely, but Latino men.

So what is, where is the Democratic party now too? Is there really a blue wall? Is the blue wall really a blue wall anymore? (laughing) I mean, Michigan, Wisconsin, Pennsylvania. When we think about the working class and the working class voter, who does that, you know, for years and years tended to favor the Democratic Party?

Thinking about what is the composition of these parties right now is also, has to really be part of our conversation. What do you think?

Stuart Shapiro

One number that I saw was that Latino men, the margin… the Trump gained 30 points in his margin from 2020 with Latino men.

Elizabeth Matto

Yeah!

Stuart Shapiro

I don’t know what the absolute numbers are, but that’s a gigantic change. Even with Latino women, he gained 15 points in his margin.

Elizabeth Matto

Yes.

Stuart Shapiro

They were the only demographics that really moved very much. Both white voters and black voters moved slightly to the Democrats, but very slightly, almost where they were in 2020.

Elizabeth Matto

So what do you attribute that to? Is that purely the economy? I mean, certainly, especially in these last few weeks, we’ve been looking at Puerto Rican voters in particular….

Stuart Shapiro

Right.

Elizabeth Matto

…wondering how will the rhetoric, especially in recent weeks, affect the Latino voter, you know, with conversations about what’s going to happen with immigration and the deportation plans that the Trump candidacy has discussed. How do you explain it?

Stuart Shapiro

Well, I’m a little loath to hypothesize too much other than to say that we need to re-examine our assumptions…

Elizabeth Matto

Yeah.

Stuart Shapiro

…about particularly how Latinos vote. I think there were assumptions that immigration would be a polarizing issue for them and push them toward the Democrats. I don’t think that that assumption has been borne out.

Elizabeth Matto

Yeah.

Stuart Shapiro

More complicated things like the role of religion and the role of gender, I think are possible explanations, but I don’t know offhand.

Elizabeth Matto

Yeah. Yeah. Yeah. But that was a striking data point to see this morning.

Stuart Shapiro

Yes it was.

Elizabeth Matto

And the other thing I’ve been thinking a lot about is, not only sort of how, after watching this campaign or trying to digest the campaign, it’s worth, again, pausing about how much was unprecedented this year. And the reality of what had to take place in the Harris campaign in a very, very short amount of time. Which makes you wonder about the primary process.

And, you know, did the Democratic Party have to be in that position where there was sort of a red flag in June. And real questions about, should it have been a more contested, was there the value perhaps of having a more vigorous or rigorous primary process?

And, you know, when you consider that, although the Harris candidacy inherited a lot of the mechanisms and the volunteer set and all of it, you know, to put a campaign together in such a short period of time. It was going to be a tough road anyway. But that just the time frame was really challenging.

Stuart Shapiro

Yeah, it certainly was, although they do it in other countries all the time. (laughing) We are known for our unusually we long presidential campaigns.

Elizabeth Matto

That’s true,that’s true!

Stuart Shapiro

I thought Harris did a good job, and I don’t think anything yesterday has disabused me of that that notion.

Elizabeth Matto

Yeah.

Stuart Shapiro

I think getting back to where we were at the beginning, the disadvantages that she had coming in were just too much to overcome.

Elizabeth Matto

Right.

Stuart Shapiro

And I don’t know that a contested primary would have done that, other than would have rectified that, other than allowing Democrats to attack each other for a certain period of time.

Elizabeth Matto

Right. Right.

Stuart Shapiro

And especially when Trump sailed through his primaries so, so easily.

Elizabeth Matto

Right.

Stuart Shapiro

And so, I mean, you know, it’s a counterfactual we’ll never know the answer to…

Elizabeth Matto

True.

Stuart Shapiro

But I do… I don’t think it would have changed very much. And I, you know, I had mixed feelings when President Biden stepped aside. I don’t think his being in the race would have changed anything.

Elizabeth Matto

No. How about, you know, if we’re talking about sort of, the campaign. And thinking about what does this all say about the election and the campaigns? What is your immediate take on survey research and public opinion polls? So we’re having this conversation just hours after the polls close. (laughing) We’re having this conversation the day after the election.

I know speaking for myself and many others I spoke to, I was all prepared to wait it out for a few days, didn’t think that there was going to be.. we would have a decision this soon.

Stuart Shapiro

Yeah.

Elizabeth Matto

And we… certainly plenty and plenty of polls indicating it was razor thin and very close. What’s your take on how polling, how we did with polling? And this is this a reflection?

Stuart Shapiro

So on the one hand, the polling predicted a race in the seven swing states that would be within the margin of error. And I think we ended up within three or four points in all of the seven swing states. I know Arizona and Nevada, as we’re talking here, have not been called yet, but I think they will be very close as well.

And so I think that’s a mark in the positive column for the pollsters. On the other hand, for the third presidential election in a row, the direction of the error has been the same. It has been President Trump’s vote that pollsters have underestimated. And I know they tried to do rating and other things to try and correct for that this time. And I don’t think it’s as bad as it was in 2016 or 2020. But it was still noticeable…

Elizabeth Matto

Yeah.

Stuart Shapiro

…and that all, that there’s a chance that Trump takes all seven swing states and that therefore the error in the polling in all seven was entirely on one side of the ledger. And that’s problematic moving forward.

Elizabeth Matto

And it’s at least…it reminds me of, and again, of all the many things we want to do a deep dive on. There was, especially, you know, a lot of my work has been looking at young adults. And there was this ongoing question going into the election of, the Trump candidacy seemed to very much resonate with young men, young white men in particular.

And, you certainly saw that reflected in the way the Trump campaign campaigned, you know, from the podcast they went on, the nature of the campaign. The risk that was often suggested was that these tend to be low propensity voters. There was also a potential red flag shared that, unlike the Harris campaign, that the Trump campaign was not outsourcing, but contracting out, basically, to do a lot of their grassroots “get out the vote work” and that that was a risk.

I’ll be interested, again, when we’re doing a good analysis, was, did it end up being a risk or did those low-propensity voters actually show up? And does that change the nature of campaigning?

You know, I think, as you well know, you know, campaigns are so sophisticated now and the microtargeting that takes place is tremendous. Usually, I think within the apparatus of the candidate, how much of that is shared with outside organizations, like A Turning Point USA that I think worked closely with the Trump campaign, I don’t know. I honestly don’t know. I think it just will be an interesting conversation to have about, is this a shift in the way we do campaigns?

Stuart Shapiro

Yep. And the data points are odd because in 2016, there were similar questions about the Trump campaign, and yet he won. In 2020, because it was an election that took place during the pandemic, the Trump campaign actually had more people out in the field than the Biden campaign, because the Biden campaign was more conscious of COVID risk.

Elizabeth Matto

Yeah.

Stuart Shapiro

And yet Biden won. And so now, you know, I think we are in an era where where all of this stuff is shifting because of social media, because of the way people get information. And I don’t think we’ve settled on a new norm or a new best practice yet.

Elizabeth Matto

Yeah. No, I think you’re probably right. How about students…or what are you thinking now? Or, what do you know thus far? What do we know? And last time I looked, we were still waiting for the the results of the House. We know that the Senate has flipped. Would love your, based on your expertise, not only the status of these congressional races, you know. Especially if both end up going Republican, what the policy implications will be.

Stuart Shapiro

Sure. So let me address those in turn. You’re right. The Senate has flipped. There will be between 52 and 55 Republican senators. I think there are three races as of yet that are still way too close to call. Pennsylvania, Nevada, and Michigan.

The House is very much still a toss-up. There are about 25 races that we don’t have determinations on, and I think that could go either way. We do know that almost certainly whoever wins will have a very small majority and not much of a margin to operate with.

Elizabeth Matto

Right.

Stuart Shapiro

And we saw what the Republicans did with that over the last two years, constant fights over the speakership and such. Having the presidency may make it easier to remain united in a Republican House. If that is the case from a policy perspective, you know, the question is, what will a Trump administration do?

And I’ve got to admit, the policy expert in me is very concerned. Because the things that will be easiest for them to do, which is putting in place more tariffs, restricting immigration and deporting people who do not have the proper documentation here, and trying to gut the civil service and government workers.

Elizabeth Matto

Yeah.

Stuart Shapiro

Those are the things they can do without much help from Congress.

Elizabeth Matto

Right.

Stuart Shapiro

And all of them are almost, and I hate to use the word objective, but expert opinion would largely agree that all three of those are bad things. That it will make Americans less secure, less well off. It will hurt the economy. It will bring inflation back and a whole range of other things. Of course, the president also has broad discretion in foreign policy, and I would be very surprised if arms shipments to Ukraine continue.

Elizabeth Matto

Yeah.

Stuart Shapiro

And that concerns me. That’s obviously a more subjective question, but I do think that that would be a bad thing for our long-term security. And then who knows what happens with NATO and such there.

Elizabeth Matto

Yes.

Stuart Shapiro

And then if he does have Congress, like I said, he won’t have a huge margin in the House, but the extension of the 2017 tax cuts in some form is very likely. And the more Republican votes he has in the House, the more likely, and the greater, the extent of those tax cuts will be, which of course raises deficit concerns as well as concerns about the health of federal programs in the long run.

Elizabeth Matto

Right. And it’s interesting, you know, given I know this isn’t determined yet, you know, like I assume and I read his remarks I didn’t see his remarks last night. President-elect Trump, you know, that certainly going in with the feeling that there is a mandate here, because there is a good chance that not only will he win the Electoral College vote, but will be winning the popular vote.

Just hearing so many of the policy, potential policy implications that you’ve mentioned, you know. How deleterious they could be for different pockets of the electorate that that elected him will be very interesting.

Stuart Shapiro

Yeah.

Elizabeth Matto

Well, I would imagine, Stuart, for you, you’re thinking about, you know, sort of wrapping up, you know, how you make meaning of this for your students. I don’t know what your plan, I mean, I have some thoughts. I don’t know how you’ll be making meaning of all of this for students, whether it’s the policy implications or the implications for just American politics in general.

Stuart Shapiro

Yeah, now we will we will be struggling with that, as I’m sure you will, over the months ahead. Today, it was more just checking in with some of the professors that taught.

Elizabeth Matto

Yeah.

Stuart Shapiro

And seeing how students are and checking on and their well-being as we move into the new semester. I think what we’ll probably focus on are those policy implications…

Elizabeth Matto

Yeah.

Stuart Shapiro

…and what are the likely effects on different segments of the population and how can we think about that moving forward. There’s obviously, at Bloustein we have a lot of students who are here from other countries and the immigration restrictions are going to hit them hard. And going to hit our programs hard moving forward if those students are not allowed into the country in subsequent years.

Elizabeth Matto

And well, I would say, you know, like you. I think in these first few days, weeks, we’re thinking similarly. Just helping to explain what we can explain to students at this moment. Making sure, right? That they are okay. And if they need expertise that we can’t offer, that we get that expertise for them, that support. I know the Office of Student Affairs has been very active in being a resource for students…

Stuart Shapiro

Yes.

Elizabeth Matto

… planning on being a resource for students. For us, you know we’re an institute of politics. So we’re helping them at least identify where there were some political gains, you know So, for example, it’s worth acknowledging and celebrating the fact that, this year we now we have two African-American women who were elected to the Senate, which is groundbreaking, which is history.

Stuart Shapiro

Yep.

Elizabeth Matto

We have more women in the New Jersey congressional delegation that we have had in past years. We have, with the election of Senator Andy Kim, the first Korean American serving in the Senate. We have the first transgender from Delaware, the first transgender woman elected to the House of Representatives.

So, you know, I think for a generation such as Gen Z. Which is, you know, not just the largest generation in American history, but the most diverse generation in American history. Being able to at least point out some progress and that those serving in office, those serving in power are at least getting… that there are some gains when it comes to representation.

And although the outcome was not successful, you know, that the vice president, you know, first woman of color was in this position is something to acknowledge and celebrate. But I also think helping students really understand ways in which they can make politics better, make American politics better, make democracy better.

We, like you, are nonpartisan. But we think politics is really important. And political participation is really important. And American democracy doesn’t advance accidentally or just naturally. It takes us doing the work.

Stuart Shapiro
Right.

Elizabeth Matto

So there’s a lot of work to do, but we’re in it. And know our students will be also.

Stuart Shapiro

And to be on guard for the next however many years to threats to that democracy.

Elizabeth Matto

Yes. Absolutely.

Stuart Shapiro

And to the electoral process. Just because we made it through yesterday unscathed doesn’t mean that dangers have passed and that we’re not still required to be vigilant in order to protect it.

Elizabeth Matto

Absolutely. Absolutely. Right. To stay engaged, you know, throughout, between all elections also.

Stuart Shapiro

Elizabeth, thank you so much for coming on quickly after the chaos of last night. Once again, this is Dr. Elizabeth Matto from the Eagleton Institute of Politics, a wonderful institution here at the Rutgers campus.

And as you said at the beginning, we are giving immediate reactions here. Maybe it’ll be worth having you on in a few weeks or months to think about longer-term reactions and implications.

Elizabeth Matto
Would be happy to, thanks so much for the invitation, Stuart!

Stuart Shapiro
And thanks also to Tamara Swedberg and Karyn Olsen for their work in producing this podcast. We will see you next week with our regularly scheduled other talk with another expert from the Bloustein School. Until then stay safe.