Rutgers political scientist Julia Sass Rubin’s research found the “county line” design gave candidates a 35% advantage in 2020’s primaries. But it hadn’t been clear what affect the change to the ballot design might have on this year’s races. The court decision came after the deadline to enter the primary, so only those candidates already running could benefit. And political analysts say often, viable candidates don’t even enter primaries if they don’t believe they’ll secure the county line placement from political leaders.
Rubin said it will be hard to measure the impact of Tuesday’s election because not only was the court decision late in the process, but it’s unclear how future ballots will be laid out. A separate case could determine whether the county line can be used on ballots going forward. Lawmakers in Trenton, many of them beneficiaries of the county-line system, have said they’re open to redesigning the ballots.
“Most political actors and donors are waiting to see how this issue plays out over the next few years before doing anything that may upset the county party organizations,” Sass Rubin said. “Does the county line come back after the June 2024 primary or does another bad ballot replace it?”