For months, it was billed as the most important election of our lives — a presidential battle between Kamala Harris and Donald Trump that would determine the future of our divided country and maybe even the fate of democracy itself.
But in New Jersey, many voters responded with a great big, historic shrug.
About 4.3 million of the Garden State’s 6.6 million registered voters cast ballots in the election, or about 65% of those eligible to vote, according to the final results certified by state officials this week.
That’s the lowest turnout the state has ever seen in a presidential election year, an NJ Advance Media analysis found. Turnout is the percentage of registered voters who actually vote in an election.
The number is 2 percentage points lower than the previous mark, set 12 years ago.
Julia Sass Rubin, a Rutgers University professor who studies New Jersey government, said it didn’t help that the state was always expected to go blue for president and that most of the other races were not competitive. An open U.S. Senate seat and all 12 of the state’s U.S. House seats were on the ballot this year.
She compared it to the last governor’s race, when incumbent Democrat Phil Murphy won a second term but by a closer-than-expected margin of about 3 points.
“As with the 2021 governor’s race, the expectation was that Democrats would win so there was not a pressing need for Democrats to turn out,” Rubin said.
Trump’s surprisingly strong showing here has led to a barrage of theories over why Jersey saw a rightward tilt — and whether this is now a swing state. Democrats have repeatedly said since Election Day they need to refocus on affordability and other kitchen-table issues.
There also seemed to be apathy toward Harris’ campaign, with some Democrats feeling she didn’t do enough to distinguish herself from President Joe Biden.
Trump saw an uptick of about 85,000 votes in New Jersey compared to 2020, and made inroads with groups such as Hispanic and Black voters. Harris, meanwhile, saw a 250,000-vote dropoff from the votes Biden got here four years ago. Trump finished with 1.96 million in the state, Harris 2.22 million
Rasmussen said “working-class communities” in Bergen, Hudson, Middlesex, and Union counties “did not find Harris’ campaign compelling.”
Rubin wrote in a recent piece for The Hill that the data “does not suggest that New Jersey is shifting dramatically to the right.”
“However, a realignment does appear to be taking place that reflects some of the national demographic trends,” Rubin added.
