Then there’s the dynamic of a caucus where many people who may go into their precincts with a preconceived notion of who they will be voting for, but then leave it having voted for another — swayed by their neighbor or boss that their initial choice wasn’t the right one.
“Nevada is a caucus state which is harder to do because of low turnout and the getting the county participation numbers correct,” said Cliff Zukin, a Rutgers University professor and former president of the American Association for Public Opinion Research. “It’s also a long caucus and pollsters may worry about getting it wrong and so be less inclined to try.”