Proposition 33 has placed rent control back on Californians’ ballots this election. Unlike elsewhere in the state, the measure’s potential changes would take effect almost immediately in San Francisco.
The proposition repeals Costa Hawkins, the 1994 statewide law barring cities from expanding their own rent-control rules. If the ballot-measure passes, cities would chart their own course regulating rental prices.
San Francisco lawmakers laid out the path The City would take last month. The Board of Supervisors approved legislation sponsored by Board President Aaron Peskin that would add about 16,000 units to The City’s longstanding rent-control program by expanding eligibility to include many newer buildings.
The measure is written to take effect as soon as state law allows…
But there are dissenting voices among housing economists making the case that the standard critique of rent control is overblown. Rutgers economist Mark Paul is among those calling for a reevaluation.
“Things like rent control are mainly going to redistribute profits from builders and existing landlords to tenants,” said Paul, who called San Francisco’s own measure a “common-sense approach” for boosting housing affordability.
Paul compared the current debate around rent control to that which once accompanied minimum-wage policies. Economists long dismissed wage floors as well, warning that artificially boosting pay would discourage employers from hiring more workers. But more recent research into the real-world impacts of minimum wage increases have found no such link, Paul said.
Likewise, Paul contends that the empirical case against rent control is weak, citing studies that found little-to-no correlation between changes in rent control programs and available housing. “There’s really no evidence that this is going to significantly harm housing supply.”
Lens disagrees with Paul’s read of the literature. He points to a recent review paper sizing up 10 studies measuring the impacts of rent-control policies. All but one found such policies came with a decline in housing.