R/ECON’s economic forecast for New Jersey as of mid-2025 continues to show a slowing trajectory. Annual GDP growth is projected at just 0.5% for 2025, significantly lower than prior forecasts and markedly below the national rate of 1.5%. The Garden State’s real estate market shows tentative signs of stabilization, though persistently elevated mortgage rates and high home prices continue to limit the strength of the rebound. Nationally, tariff increases are expected to put upward pressure on prices, with inflation projected to reach 3.7% in the second quarter of 2026.
Topic
Research, Publications, and Reports
New Publication from Payne: Digital Twin or Digital Kin?
The authors argue that questions around interoperability and profit and tensions with democratic deliberation and socially beneficial outcomes necessitate best-practice “digital kin” models. These models are inclusive of different urban realities and diverse communities, as well as more closely integrated across platforms locations for use in participatory planning to advance social equity outcomes.
Heldrich Report Examines Effect of New Jersey TAG Program
A new report, Building a Comparison Group for Tuition Aid Grant Recipients Using the New Jersey Statewide Data System, examines the effect of the New Jersey Tuition Aid Grant program on college graduation.
Samuel and Colleagues Examine the Rise of AI Phobia
Contemporary public discourse surrounding artificial intelligence (AI) often exhibits a disproportionate level of fear and confusion relative to AI’s factually documented capabilities and implications. This study examines how the systematic use of alarmist and fear-inducing language by news media outlets contributes to negative public perceptions of AI.
Ralph, Johnson-Rodriguez Research ASE Perceptions
We found that many respondents did not believe that speeding was particularly dangerous, and that people with these beliefs were less likely to support automated speed enforcement. However, providing a message about the dangers of speeding was effective in increasing support for automated enforcement, especially among people who did not hold extreme beliefs about the (lack of) danger of speed.
Zhang et al. Study Street-View Greenspace and Exercise
In this prospective cohort, momentary street-view exposure to trees and grass was inversely associated with PA, while exposure to other greenspace was positively associated. Future research should confirm these results in other populations and explore the mechanisms through which specific greenspace components influence PA.
Loh and Noland Explore Public Charging Station Disparities
ontrary to the general notion of unequal access to public charging stations across different income groups, we found that the disparity was minimal. Assuming a full fleet of EVs and the current level of charging infrastructure, the success rate for all income groups is low but similar using 2035 trip-level data.
Heldrich Center Releases New Work Trends Brief and Website
A new research brief, Exploring 2024 and 2020 Election-Year Longitudinal Trends in Support for Minimum Wage, College Loan Forgiveness, and Paid Leave Among U.S. Workers: Republicans Appear More Supportive of Policies for Some Americans Over Time, features findings from a December 2024 survey of U.S. workers about policy proposals related to the economy, education, and work.
NJSPL Report: Analyzing the Use and Equity of ARPA Funds
The study’s findings have two key implications for future federal aid programs. First, many local governments allocated ARPA funds in alignment with the policy’s primary goals—responding to the economic and health crises. This suggests that maintaining flexibility in future federal aid programs would enable local governments to tailor spending to their unique needs. Second, ARPA funds were allocated to more distressed local governments, demonstrating a potential model for future federal aid programs to ensure resources reach areas with the greatest need.
Heldrich Report: Analysis of NJ Life Sciences, Tech Sectors
The Heldrich Center, in conjunction with the New Jersey Economic Development Authority (NJEDA), is pleased to share a new workforce analysis of the life sciences and technology sectors in New Jersey, with a particular emphasis on the sectors’ intersection with...