Like the broader U.S., New Jersey is likely to finish the year with notably stronger GDP growth than forecast earlier, though growth is projected to decline to 0.8% in 2026, before rebounding modestly to 1% the following year.
Topic
economic forecast
NJ job market ‘stalled’ by layoffs, weak hiring
The job market so far this year in New Jersey has been “a mixed bag — overall, relatively weak,” said Will Irving with the Rutgers University New Jersey State Policy Lab. “We are through July down about 7,800 jobs, net, and that reflects losses in both a number of private-sector industries and public sector, state government in particular.”
Here’s what NJ’s latest economic data indicates
Rutgers professor Will Irving was less sanguine about the office market and the state’s economy. With respect to a hard or soft landing, he said, “it’s still a landing, and the landing that we’re seeing in New Jersey is a little ahead and a little harder than we’re seeing elsewhere.”
Report Release: R/ECON Forecast Summer 2025
R/ECON’s economic forecast for New Jersey as of mid-2025 continues to show a slowing trajectory. Annual GDP growth is projected at just 0.5% for 2025, significantly lower than prior forecasts and markedly below the national rate of 1.5%. The Garden State’s real estate market shows tentative signs of stabilization, though persistently elevated mortgage rates and high home prices continue to limit the strength of the rebound. Nationally, tariff increases are expected to put upward pressure on prices, with inflation projected to reach 3.7% in the second quarter of 2026.
Tariff Uncertainty and its Impact on Economic Forecasting
R/ECON’s next economic forecast is slated for release in mid-summer, followed by another forecast in the fall. As we track the latest state data and national outlook, we have been closely following the news on tariffs, the Fed’s potential actions, and associated fluctuations in the financial markets.
Navigating New Jersey’s Economic Outlook
In our first episode of EJB Talks for 2025, Stuart Shapiro and Will Irving discuss Will’s current role with the Rutgers Economic Advisory Service (R/ECON) as well as the latest economic forecast for New Jersey, which predicts a sharper economic slowdown compared to the national trend.