“Many probably were not at that time yet factoring in the full impact of a longer and broader conflict — so the expectation of moderate improvement over the next six months could prove optimistic,” Will Irving wrote in an email.
Topic
recession
How Iran war and new jobs data paint a sour picture for NJ economy
New Jersey’s sluggish job growth in 2025 continued a downward trend over several years. The state added nearly 64,200 jobs in 2023, but only 39,800 in 2024, according to data compiled by the New Jersey Department of Labor.
“Things are definitely cooling,” Will Irving, a professor at the New Jersey State Policy Lab at Rutgers University, told NorthJersey.com in January.
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“I would not be surprised to see other states start to experience rapid increases as employment growth nationally continues to slow and/or decline,” Irving said in an email.
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“Things are definitely cooling,” said Will Irving, a professor at the New Jersey State Policy Lab at Rutgers University.
“A lot of tariff uncertainty likely contributed to slow hiring in 2025 even as the lower-than-originally-announced tariff levels took less of a bite out of economic growth than many expected,” he said.
NJ unemployment rate hits 4-year high amid cooling job market
“Things are definitely cooling,” said Will Irving, a professor at the New Jersey State Policy Lab at Rutgers University.
“A lot of tariff uncertainty likely contributed to slow hiring in 2025 even as the lower-than-originally-announced tariff levels took less of a bite out of economic growth than many expected,” he said.
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“New Jersey has a tough road ahead of it,” Hughes said. “It took a long time for us to move into that negative business position, so I think the road out is going to be long as well.”
Stagnating national jobs market raises economic concerns
Irving said he’ll be tracking jobs numbers closely in coming months. New Jersey’s unemployment rate is 5.2% — that’s higher than the national rate — and Irving noted the state has in recent years been a bellwether for what is coming to the rest of America.
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“We may start seeing signs of a recession, but that doesn’t mean we’re in a recession,” he told NJ101.5. “The economy is constantly flowing, changing. I don’t see us at the moment being in recession. But there clearly is potential for that.”
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“Things have been tepid for quite a while,” he said, “but this notion that we may be coming toward a recession? We’re looking at sort of middle of next year — at least a recession as you might want to define it at the state level, where we start to see significant job declines.” said Will Irving.
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“We may start seeing signs of a recession, but that doesn’t mean we’re in a recession. The economy is constantly flowing, changing. I don’t see us at the moment being in recession. But there clearly is potential for that,” Pfeiffer said.