Comparison of New Jersey’s Greenhouse Gas Reduction Targets with United States’ Nationally Determined Contribution and Projected Global Reduction Pathways Consistent with the Paris Agreement
Abstract
Following the latest Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change IPCC Sixth Assessment Report (AR6) Working Group III Climate Change 2022 Mitigation of Climate Change report and associated data (hereafter: AR6-WGIII, IPCC, 2022), and the 2015 Paris Agreement (UNFCCC, 2015), this report evaluates New Jersey emissions targets relative to the goals set forth in the U.S. Nationally Determined Contribution (NDC) and IPCC projections that are consistent with the Paris Agreement of keeping global temperatures well below 2°C relative to preindustrial temperatures by 2100 and pursuing efforts to limit the temperature increase to 1.5°C. New Jersey’s 2030 goal is consistent with the warming scenario that limits warming to 1.5°C with high overshoot but not quite reaching the 1.5°C with no or limited overshoot. However, New Jersey’s 2050 goal is most consistent with limiting warming to 2°C and is proportionally less ambitious than the recent U.S. 2050 goal of net-zero GHG emissions. Additionally, New Jersey’s 2050 target does not follow the stated goal of the Paris Agreement to limit global warming to “well below” 2°C by 2100. New Jersey’s 2050 goal of 80% below 2006 levels is not consistent with recent U.S. goals of achieving net-zero GHG emissions by 2050, and to meet goals of the Paris Agreement, New Jersey would have to amend its 2050 emission reduction goal to net-zero emissions by 2050. To be in line with recent national goals that are in alignment with Paris, as well as with the U.S. Climate Alliance aspirations, other states in the Northeast and elsewhere throughout the country, and the Port Authority, New Jersey would need to amend its 2050 emission reduction goal to net-zero emissions by 2050.
Citation
J B Shope, RE Kopp, MB Kaplan, J Herb, A Spector (2025). Comparison of New Jersey’s Greenhouse Gas Reduction Targets with United States’ Nationally Determined Contribution and Projected Global Reduction Pathways Consistent with the Paris Agreement. Rutgers University. DOI: https://doi.org/10.7282/00000491