A steep decline in immigration is largely responsible for slower New Jersey population growth, according to the latest national Census data.
The U.S. Census Bureau’s most recent population estimates for states and counties, released Thursday, show “a historic decline in net international migration” nationwide. Immigration peaked at 2.7 million from July 1, 2023-June 30, 2024, according to Census estimates. Through June 2025, the figure was 1.3 million, for a one-year drop of more than 50%.
That decline “was caused by both a decrease in immigration and an increase in emigration,” or people moving out of the United States, according to Census Bureau staff. Population estimates for 2023-25 span “two periods of very different immigration policies for the United States.”
The Trump administration’s anti-immigrant rhetoric and crackdown clearly have had an impact, making it “much less attractive to come to the United States,” said Rutgers University Professor James Hughes, who studies the state’s demographic trends…
Population changes can have wide-ranging ramifications, including the ability to fill jobs and fund local services and schools. Population totals dictate each state’s number of seats in the House of Representatives. Because of small population gains, New Jersey is not expected to lose a representative in the next congressional reapportionment.
New Jersey and other states have relied on immigration as a source of population growth due to the decline in fertility rates and the number of births, Hughes said.
“If we have not had substantial international immigration, we would have been losing population over the years, and it certainly has benefited the state,” he said…
All but one of New Jersey’s 21 counties — Cape May — gained population in the past year. Only Cape May has fewer residents than during the 2020 census, having lost about 1,900 people or about 2% of its total population.
In 2024-2025, Ocean County led in population growth, as it has for more than a decade. The fifth most populous county, Ocean saw almost 1% growth with the addition of about 5,400 people. Hughes said that’s a unique situation, due largely to migration from Brooklyn to the Jewish enclaves in and around Lakewood.
Essex County, the state’s second most populous, added close to 34,000 people.
Overall, New Jersey added about 260,000 people between April 1, 2020, and July 1, 2025, for an increase of close to 3%. Net migration of about 158,000 people accounted for most of that.