Research from Ralph: The Deal Breaker Theory of Cycling

May 21, 2025

The deal breaker theory of cycling: A new approach to understanding bike behavior

Highlights

  • Biking research suffers from issues like perfect prediction and tautological variables.
  • People determine whether to bike by comparing needs to prevailing conditions.
  • Needs include Safety, Comfort, Relative Convenience, Tools, and Social Approval.
  • A single deficit is a deal-breaker. If one need isn’t met, someone will not bike.
  • Scholars should determine the distribution of needs and how they vary over time.

Abstract

Most locations across the world have a large un-tapped pool of people who do not bike at all and an even larger pool who do not bike for transportation. To increase cycling, we must better understand this group and the reasons they do not ride. I propose a new theory that suggests everyone has a list of “must-haves” that must be in place before they will bike. While there are many possible cycling needs, I introduce five in this paper: Safety, Comfort, Relative Convenience, Availability of Tools, and Social Approval. These needs are uncorrelated (needs in one domain are independent of needs in another) and not uniformly distributed (some people have high needs, while others have low). I argue that potential cyclists periodically compare their needs to prevailing conditions. In some areas, prevailing conditions meet the needs of many people (e.g., Copenhagen or Amsterdam). Elsewhere, conditions meet the needs of very few. The theory gets its name from the idea that any unmet need is a deal breaker. The theory usefully explains commonplace patterns of biking behaviors and visualizes how pro-cycling interventions improve prevailing conditions. The theory also overcomes a number of methodological problems plaguing current bike behavior research. Scholars should work to document the distribution of cycling needs and explore how needs and views of prevailing conditions change over time. Finally, scholars should work to quantify how many people will have their needs met from different pro-cycling interventions.

Citation

Kelcie M. Ralph, The deal breaker theory of cycling: A new approach to understanding bike behavior, Transportation Research Interdisciplinary Perspectives, Volume 31, 2025, 101462, ISSN 2590-1982, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.trip.2025.101462.

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