“Things are definitely cooling,” said Will Irving, a professor at the New Jersey State Policy Lab at Rutgers University.
“A lot of tariff uncertainty likely contributed to slow hiring in 2025 even as the lower-than-originally-announced tariff levels took less of a bite out of economic growth than many expected,” he said.
“Things are definitely cooling,” said Will Irving, a professor at the New Jersey State Policy Lab at Rutgers University.
“A lot of tariff uncertainty likely contributed to slow hiring in 2025 even as the lower-than-originally-announced tariff levels took less of a bite out of economic growth than many expected,” he said.
Irving said he’ll be tracking jobs numbers closely in coming months. New Jersey’s unemployment rate is 5.2% — that’s higher than the national rate — and Irving noted the state has in recent years been a bellwether for what is coming to the rest of America.
“Things have been tepid for quite a while,” he said, “but this notion that we may be coming toward a recession? We’re looking at sort of middle of next year — at least a recession as you might want to define it at the state level, where we start to see significant job declines.” said Will Irving.
Some of those issues — like Trump’s tariffs and the rise of AI displacing portions of the labor market — “certainly pose challenges that would be hard to combat via state policy alone,” said Will Irving, a professor at the New Jersey State Policy Lab at Rutgers University.
The job market so far this year in New Jersey has been “a mixed bag — overall, relatively weak,” said Will Irving with the Rutgers University New Jersey State Policy Lab. “We are through July down about 7,800 jobs, net, and that reflects losses in both a number of private-sector industries and public sector, state government in particular.”
Rutgers professor Will Irving was less sanguine about the office market and the state’s economy. With respect to a hard or soft landing, he said, “it’s still a landing, and the landing that we’re seeing in New Jersey is a little ahead and a little harder than we’re seeing elsewhere.”
R/ECON’s economic forecast for New Jersey as of mid-2025 continues to show a slowing trajectory. Annual GDP growth is projected at just 0.5% for 2025, significantly lower than prior forecasts and markedly below the national rate of 1.5%. The Garden State’s real estate market shows tentative signs of stabilization, though persistently elevated mortgage rates and high home prices continue to limit the strength of the rebound. Nationally, tariff increases are expected to put upward pressure on prices, with inflation projected to reach 3.7% in the second quarter of 2026.
R/ECON’s next economic forecast is slated for release in mid-summer, followed by another forecast in the fall. As we track the latest state data and national outlook, we have been closely following the news on tariffs, the Fed’s potential actions, and associated fluctuations in the financial markets.
While housing costs in New Jersey continue to be among the highest in the nation, the state growth rate of 4.8% for median owner costs for housing with a mortgage was among the slowest in the country (43rd) and well below the national rate of 7.2%.