“Many probably were not at that time yet factoring in the full impact of a longer and broader conflict — so the expectation of moderate improvement over the next six months could prove optimistic,” Will Irving wrote in an email.
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Will Irving
How Iran war and new jobs data paint a sour picture for NJ economy
New Jersey’s sluggish job growth in 2025 continued a downward trend over several years. The state added nearly 64,200 jobs in 2023, but only 39,800 in 2024, according to data compiled by the New Jersey Department of Labor.
“Things are definitely cooling,” Will Irving, a professor at the New Jersey State Policy Lab at Rutgers University, told NorthJersey.com in January.
Report Release: R/ECON Forecast Winter 2026
Like the broader U.S., New Jersey is likely to finish the year with notably stronger GDP growth than forecast earlier, though growth is projected to decline to 0.8% in 2026, before rebounding modestly to 1% the following year.
NJ’s employment, economic numbers look bad. Can Sherrill fix that?
“I would not be surprised to see other states start to experience rapid increases as employment growth nationally continues to slow and/or decline,” Irving said in an email.
North Jersey inflation rose 3.4% in 2025. How it compares to nation
“Things are definitely cooling,” said Will Irving, a professor at the New Jersey State Policy Lab at Rutgers University.
“A lot of tariff uncertainty likely contributed to slow hiring in 2025 even as the lower-than-originally-announced tariff levels took less of a bite out of economic growth than many expected,” he said.
NJ unemployment rate hits 4-year high amid cooling job market
“Things are definitely cooling,” said Will Irving, a professor at the New Jersey State Policy Lab at Rutgers University.
“A lot of tariff uncertainty likely contributed to slow hiring in 2025 even as the lower-than-originally-announced tariff levels took less of a bite out of economic growth than many expected,” he said.
Stagnating national jobs market raises economic concerns
Irving said he’ll be tracking jobs numbers closely in coming months. New Jersey’s unemployment rate is 5.2% — that’s higher than the national rate — and Irving noted the state has in recent years been a bellwether for what is coming to the rest of America.
Could layoffs in NJ preview a recession for 2026?
“Things have been tepid for quite a while,” he said, “but this notion that we may be coming toward a recession? We’re looking at sort of middle of next year — at least a recession as you might want to define it at the state level, where we start to see significant job declines.” said Will Irving.
How would Ciattarelli, Sherrill handle NJ’s big economic hurdles as governor?
Some of those issues — like Trump’s tariffs and the rise of AI displacing portions of the labor market — “certainly pose challenges that would be hard to combat via state policy alone,” said Will Irving, a professor at the New Jersey State Policy Lab at Rutgers University.
NJ job market ‘stalled’ by layoffs, weak hiring
The job market so far this year in New Jersey has been “a mixed bag — overall, relatively weak,” said Will Irving with the Rutgers University New Jersey State Policy Lab. “We are through July down about 7,800 jobs, net, and that reflects losses in both a number of private-sector industries and public sector, state government in particular.”