R/ECON’s economic forecast for New Jersey as of mid-2025 continues to show a slowing trajectory. Annual GDP growth is projected at just 0.5% for 2025, significantly lower than prior forecasts and markedly below the national rate of 1.5%. The Garden State’s real estate market shows tentative signs of stabilization, though persistently elevated mortgage rates and high home prices continue to limit the strength of the rebound. Nationally, tariff increases are expected to put upward pressure on prices, with inflation projected to reach 3.7% in the second quarter of 2026.
Topic
Will Irving
Tariff Uncertainty and its Impact on Economic Forecasting
R/ECON’s next economic forecast is slated for release in mid-summer, followed by another forecast in the fall. As we track the latest state data and national outlook, we have been closely following the news on tariffs, the Fed’s potential actions, and associated fluctuations in the financial markets.
Checking In on NJ’s Income and Housing Cost Rankings
While housing costs in New Jersey continue to be among the highest in the nation, the state growth rate of 4.8% for median owner costs for housing with a mortgage was among the slowest in the country (43rd) and well below the national rate of 7.2%.
Healthcare, Policy, and the Opioid Crisis: Bridging Gaps in Access
This week on EJB Talks Assistant Professor Zoe Lindenfeld talks to Dean Stuart Shapiro about her research on substance use disorders, particularly the opioid crisis, and its ties to healthcare access and policy. She explains how her interest in the field was sparked by the opioid epidemic’s emergence as a public health crisis.
Navigating New Jersey’s Economic Outlook
In our first episode of EJB Talks for 2025, Stuart Shapiro and Will Irving discuss Will’s current role with the Rutgers Economic Advisory Service (R/ECON) as well as the latest economic forecast for New Jersey, which predicts a sharper economic slowdown compared to the national trend.
Will the Nation’s Employment Growth Trajectory Follow NJ’s?
In late July, the outlook for the U.S. economy appeared strong, with some observers suggesting that the Fed had indeed nailed the long-awaited soft-landing even in light of recent cooling in the labor market. Just a week later, however, markets panicked, albeit briefly, as the national jobs report for July showed monthly payroll employment growth slowing to 114,000 jobs, well short of the projected 175,000 job gain.
New Income Distribution Data from the U.S. BEA
Based on the BEA data for 2022, New Jersey’s median personal income ranked 4th in the nation at $137,252, about 23% higher than the national median.
How does New Jersey benefit from tax incentives given to film, TV and AI industries?
“It’s simply because AI is such a hot topic right now, such a hot term, I’m not sure how this would necessarily differ from any of the targeted industries they already identify, which are mostly high-tech industries,” Irving said.
NJSPL – Industry Employment Growth in NJ
Since the end of December, total job growth has been relatively strong in the state, though data revisions have continued to blur the picture.
NJSPL – NJ Progress with Offshore Wind Projects
Offshore wind has the potential to contribute to the state’s decarbonization goals while generating approximately 20,000 new jobs for the state by 2030, but exactly how these economic benefits will be distributed remains to be seen