Editorial: No, we’re not losing all the good people

The project was conducted by Rutgers University graduate students under the supervision of Cliff Zukin, a professor of public policy and political science at Rutgers’ Edward J. Bloustein School for Planning and Public Policy and Eagleton Institute of Politics. “There is no crisis here, it’s not that people are fleeing the state. There’s always a […]

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Millennials Not Hotfooting It Out of New Jersey After All — Report

“There is no crisis here, it’s not that people are fleeing the state,” said Cliff Zukin, a professor of public policy and political science at Rutgers’ Edward J. Bloustein School for Planning and Public Policy and Eagleton Institute of Politics who served as adviser to the project. “There’s always a churn of young people move […]

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NJ Politics Digest: Are Millennials Actually Fleeing the State?

A new study by the advocacy group New Jersey Policy Perspectives found that while residents 18 to 39 are fleeing the state, it’s no greater than anytime in the last 14 years, according to a report by NJBiz.com. And it’s no different than the number of people their age leaving other high-tax states in the […]

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Nevada Democratic caucus tough to predict

Then there’s the dynamic of a caucus where many people who may go into their precincts with a preconceived notion of who they will be voting for, but then leave it having voted for another — swayed by their neighbor or boss that their initial choice wasn’t the right one. “Nevada is a caucus state […]

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Don’t you dare trust the polls

Rutgers political scientist Cliff Zukin estimates that landline-only phone surveys miss about 60% of eligible voters. Good pollsters try to compensate by sampling cellphone users, too. (Pew will sample 75% cellphones in 2016.) But that’s more complicated for several reasons: Federal law requires that pollsters dial cellphone numbers manually (no robo calls); people have cellphones […]

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Polling ‘Failures’ Predicted for 2016 US Election

As the U.S. presidential election cycle goes into high gear, and polls become a constant staple of media coverage, experts say it has become harder to gauge who will win the race. They point to past pre-election surveys that did not accurately predict the outcome…. “There are probably going to be more errors,” said Rutgers […]

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With Primaries Around The Corner, A Look At How Much We Trust Polls

As the 2016 presidential race ramps up, news outlets, candidates and voters are turning to polls to see how each presidential hopeful is doing. Jill Lepore of Harvard University and Cliff Zukin of Rutgers University argue that the way polls are conducted has become problematic, and we might not want to put so much faith in them. They […]

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Numbers Don’t Lie Until They Do

While Gallup’s inaccuracies came as a shock to the political community, they are representative of a bigger problem: the inaccuracies of phone polling, which have only gotten worse. Traditional polling by landline phone has grown more difficult as fewer people are responding to phone surveys; yet, there are still no solid alternatives to phone polling. […]

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