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“It’s just a hiccup,” Dr. Rubin said. “If this decision holds, it will completely upend New Jersey politics.”

It’s called the “county line” — and it’s been the stuff of backroom Jersey politics that allowed party bosses to play an outsized role for decades in determining the winners and losers on election day. Now, a federal judge may have changed all of that with a 49-page ruling Friday that sent shockwaves through the state and could forever curb the power of those bosses.

“Democracy is about voters deciding,” says Julia Sass Rubin, a Rutgers professor and an expert witness in the federal suit that challenged the line. “We don’t need to be protected from democracy by four or five people who think they know better what’s good for us.”

A lawyer representing county clerks in New Jersey has requested that a judge delay his landmark decision of scrapping the state’s county-line ballot design, a system that critics say has given tremendous weight to establishment candidates at the expense of outsiders.

In his March 29 opinion, Judge Quraishi said that he assigned Rubin’s testimony “substantial weight,” based on her “demeanor, manner in which she testified, and substance of her testimony which was corroborated by other evidence presented.”

“It undermines the entire system of machine power,” Sass Rubin said. “It’s a different world. I just think you’ve taken away such a huge chunk of what they have to keep in power and really the only thing that makes us different.”

One study by Julia Sass Rubin, an associate dean at the Edward J. Bloustein School of Planning and Policy at Rutgers, found that being on the county line gave congressional candidates an advantage of 38 percentage points.

“We are the last of the [political] machine states, and the machine relies on the county line to stay in control,” Rubin told The Washington Post last week. “If you displease the people who decide who gets the line,” you could lose your office, she said.

“I think what [the line] produces is whatever the machine needs to produce to stay in power,” said Julia Sass Rubin, a Rutgers professor and prominent critic of the line balloting. “In Murphy’s case, because he had the resources to run and he ran as a progressive, we got a progressive governor…”

A long-simmering fight over New Jersey’s unique primary ballot design reached a federal courtroom Monday in a case that has the potential to upend not only the state’s tense U.S. Senate race but Garden State politics in general.

Rutgers University professor Julia Sass Rubin, who has analyzed the impact of the county line in elections, published a study last year that detailed the advantage it gives to candidates who have the line.

New Jersey is the only state in the nation with this type of bracketed ballot design. According to Julia Sass Rubin, a public-policy professor at Rutgers, a candidate who gets the line enjoys a double-digit advantage over the competition

This system allows parties to give preferential ballot placement to their preferred candidates, putting endorsees in a prominent location while relegating others to less visible spots known as “ballot Siberia.” That design confers an extreme advantage: Rutgers professor Julia Sass Rubin concluded that between 2002 and 2022, candidates on the county line enjoyed an average boost of 38 points.

“It’s really difficult for state legislators to have any independence. If they don’t vote the way these folks want them to, they lose the Line, and then they lose their election,” Rubin said.
Kim’s campaign, and his push against the Line, had elevated the primary race from a typical political contest to a symbolic fight over the state’s murky political ethics.

Besides, she says, the notion that a small cabal of party elites gets to make this decision is offensive, even if they make good choices. “I don’t want a benevolent dictator telling me who the right candidates are for me,” Sass Rubin says.

“The Tammy Murphy-Andy Kim race has put (the issue) on steroids. It has really amplified general public awareness, which was building. But it was building among the aware, kind of progressive grassroots,” Rubin said. “This brought it into the mainstream in a big way.”

“You’re going to start seeing a lot more bravery by legislators and you’re going to see primary challengers that are more successful,” said Sass Rubin, the Rutgers professor. “So you’re going to have more accountability.”

Candidates not on the line “look illegitimate” when they are not grouped with other candidates, Rubin said in a recent phone interview. “They’re off in ballot Siberia.”

Ultimately, says Rubin, because party chairs and/or party insiders have the power to determine who goes on the county line, “Elected officials become beholden to a few party insiders, not to the voters.”

For example, Professor Julia Sass Rubin from Rutgers University has argued that the county line system impacts elections by “steering voters towards specific candidates” and “increases voter confusion, contributing to overvotes and undervotes” by as much as 50 percentage points in some races.

The defense cross-examined Sass Rubin, asking her whether she could specify whether the races she analyzed could have been affected by name recognition of the candidate, or the amount of money spent on the race.
“Potentially,” Sass Rubin said. “But you’re seeing the same pattern being on the county line and having the same results across 45 races.”

“We are the last of the [political] machine states, and the machine relies on the county line to stay in control,” Rubin told The Washington Post on Monday. “If you displease the people who decide who gets the line,” you could lose your office, she said.

One study by Rutgers University [written by Professor Julia Sass Rubin] found that being granted the line gives congressional candidates a 38-point advantage. Though party machines dominate other states, too, this particular method of control is unique to New Jersey. One expert described it as that “special New Jersey sauce.”